Growing and spreading

By G.S. and L.P.

The results from our latest poll of forecasters

EACH month we ask a group of economists to give us their predictions for GDP growth, inflation and the current account (basically, a measure of foreign trade) across 14 economies. Economists seldom agree on much, and the latest forecasts for 2015 are no exception. Sweden and Britain show the biggest discrepancies, with growth forecasts ranging from 2.1% to 3.5%, and 1.8% to 3.2%, respectively. Although the range of expectations for Japan’s economy was the narrowest among the countries in our poll, there was still of a spread of 0.8 percentage points. Overall, the economists felt that next year will be better than this year. Only the economies of Britain and Japan are expected to expand at slower rates in 2015. But for those European countries that have suffered deep recessions, notably Italy and Spain, growth is likely to remain sluggish over the two year period. Even economists, those dismal scientists, can agree on that.